The Coronavirus Pandemic Part III: The World Emerging from this Crisis

The coronavirus pandemic, which has posed a threat to potentially millions of lives, and risks destroying the global economy if not handled well, is the biggest global crisis the world has faced since World War II. The aftermath of that war changed the ranking of world powers, exposed the prevailing powers’ weaknesses and overstretch, positioned a new power to lead, led to the collapse of the positions of the prevailing great powers in their colonies, established a multi-decade cold war based on differing world views and ideologies between two new powers, required the reconstruction of the losing nations, resulted in a series of agreements to define a new world order and ushered in defining changes for geopolitics, security, society and human rights. Ordinary people had been affected in much of the world, and their world views had changed.

In this crisis, a silent enemy in the form of a pandemic has swept across the world in just three months with a devastating human and economic impact, claiming at least 360,000 lives to date1, with estimates placing the actual number at 50-60% higher2, and triggering the most severe worldwide economic downturn since the Great Depression. The pandemic has tested the world’s resilience3 and the ensuing responses by various countries have exposed fundamental weaknesses in geopolitics, economics and society. It has called into question the role of America as the prevailing superpower, the role of China as the rising great power and the role of international institutions as the coordinators of international unity. In the absence of world leadership, countries have mobilised nonetheless, albeit at highly different levels of effectiveness, with an unprecedented level of action that would have been unthinkable three months ago.

The impact on nations has been far reaching and includes c.60% of the world population in some form of prolonged lockdown or curfew4 ; the paralysis of economic activity resulting in expected global GDP growth in 2020 falling from 3% to (3%)5 ; international and domestic travel stopping nearly completely6 ; c.90% of the world’s students learning from home (many through online tools)7, and; the race to develop a vaccine in a matter of quarters rather than years8. However, the crisis is far from over. While some countries are ready to come out of lockdown, others are still in the midst of rising or high death counts. The epicentre of the outbreak continues to move onward and return to those who have exited their lockdowns to unleash subsequent waves of infections.

It is clear that this pandemic’s worst effects have most likely been contained through the actions taken and so it is unlikely to devastate the world in the way that the Spanish Flu or the Black Plague did. However, while the full scale of the human and economic loss that the world will endure during this period is uncertain and will depend in large part on how quickly and effectively major countries can mobilise and apply the principles of warfare to contain both the virus and the economic impact9, the world is synchronised in being shaken by this crisis. What is also clear is that the seeds have been laid for an enduring and significant change to the world.

This month’s Sign of the Times, the third in the series on the pandemic, looks at the world that could emerge after the pandemic, drawing on the key lessons learned during the last three months to point to how the world and the lives of its people might be reshaped when the pandemic is finally overcome.

 

The Shocks and the Truths this Crisis has Revealed

The crisis has revealed stark differences in the resilience of major nations. Fault lines were revealed resulting from population and demographics, healthcare systems and social protections, economies’ ability to withstand macroeconomic shocks, and a lack of the key capabilities required to respond10 . Surprisingly, the analysis points to the lack of resilience in the US and UK, in particular, among the developed nations, which have become epicentres of the outbreak on their respective continents.

Since this first paper, the full scale of these shocks and their impact on the world have become clearer. The table below outlines the various shocks the virus has unleashed and illustrates their impact on the world to date.

 

Some of the Harsh Shocks

The world has suffered shocks on multiple levels in just three months, which if they had been the result of a human enemy, there would be little doubt as to the importance of the attack, and this would be the beginning of a coordinated global effort to win the fight.

 

Some of the Harsh Truths

As the pandemic continues to evolve, spreading to developing countries and potentially manifesting as second waves in countries seeking to emerge from lockdowns across the world, it has exposed some critical weaknesses about the world from a political, economic and social perspective.

While many of these issues have been brewing for a number of years, the pandemic has exacerbated them with unnecessary suffering and death. Some others are among the critical root causes that allowed the virus to become a major global public health and economic crisis.

Some, Americans in particular, seem to be deeply divided on whether the coronavirus is anything more than a common influenza, whether lockdowns should have happened and whether the economy should have been closed at all21 . For arguments sake, say the answer was that these are all valid questions and the answers were truly unclear. In which case, the world and every leader faced the same test in every country and continent from the poorest in Africa and Asia to the richest in North America and Europe. How did they fare? Who passed the test of protecting their people and economies well, and who did not?

There will be many reasons not to face the obvious conclusions, but these will not avoid the truths of the stark differences between countries’ mortality rates and and the economic shocks they are suffering.

This reveals some simple unavoidable truths:

  1. Nationalism Populists, and Most Authoritarians, are Incapable of Managing Crises. Democratically elected national populists lead three out of the four worst-impacted countries in terms of the number of confirmed infections to date (the US, Brazil and the UK) with mortality rates 2.5-12x higher than the global average, and the fourth is Russia23 . And populists and authoritarians in Turkey, Iran and the Philippines have not fared much better on a relative basis in their regions. The strategies that got National Populists elected to power failed in the face of an actual crisis, and instead led to denial, followed by confused and delayed responses that led to far greater deaths. Their inability to manage the crisis is reflected in the exponentially higher mortality rates in absolute terms for the National Populists in the west, and higher mortality rates relative to others in their respective regions for the others.
  2. “Post-Truth” Politics has Already Undermined Understanding, Mobilisation and Effective Responses in Leading Societies. The pandemic has led to a proliferation of misinformation across both traditional and social media, which has fed misleading theories of cures, origins of the disease, who is to blame and why this is not a crisis at all. Fake news has been deployed effectively by the same leaders who failed to be effective at containing the virus itself. In many democratic countries, the oppositions too have proven to be ineffective at holding the government to account.
  3. Political Agendas are not Always Aligned with Both Protecting People and Saving the Economy. Politicians’ agendas have varied significantly depending on their domestic political situation and have not always aligned with protecting lives. This has undermined the messages of “stay at home”, breaking the first principle of warfare, ‘A Clear, Decisive and Achievable Objective’, thereby resulting in confusion, poorly implemented lockdowns and higher deaths.
  4. Inequality is Deeply Entrenched in Society Across Many Dimensions, and Directly Linked to Vulnerability. The pandemic has exposed the extent to which economic inequality has become rooted across many dimensions. In America, for example, the poor and minority communities have been disproportionately impacted24 due to a higher prevalence of comorbidities like diabetes and hypertension25 and a greater likelihood of being amongst the 45% of the country that is under-insured26 . In developing countries like India, informal workers that make up c.90% of the workforce27 , working as migrant workers and living in urban slums, have been most impacted by both the virus and its economic consequences.
  5. There are Fanatics in Every Society Willing to Put Others at Risk. In every society, there are undisciplined people who are willing to put the lives of others at risk. In addition to the inevitable lockdown breakers (due to necessity, ignorance, or just plain cabin fever) there are assault rifle carrying protesters storming state capitols in the name of protecting ‘freedom’, and conspiracy theorists blaming vaccines, Bill Gates and 5G towers; and there are also religious groups who wantonly flout social distance regulations to congregate to worship and go on to spread the virus in the community at large.
  6. The World’s Societies Have Severe Underlying Mental Health and Domestic Violence Issues. During the lockdowns, a number of countries have reported a sudden increase in cases of domestic violence and abuse, combined with a rise in various mental health problems including depression, substance abuse and suicide, with 45% of US adults reporting worse mental health29 . This has revealed that despite decades of economic progress, society’s mental health has been deteriorating and severely under-treated, for which the vulnerable – children, women and the suicidal in particular – have paid a heavy price.

Among these truths, a simple and harsh one stands out: that some leaders, some ideologies, some agendas and some beliefsAmong these truths, a simple and harsh one stands out: that some leaders, some ideologies, some agendas and some beliefs kill more people than others, and beggar their economies in the process. kill more people than others and beggar their economies in the process. In some cases, the markets have recovered rapidly after the initial c.30-40% falls and sopshisitcated participants were able to make huge gains given the volatility. The MSCI World Index is currently only 9% below its level at the beginning of the year, even as several major markets are looking at up to 40% contractions in GDP in the current quarter and unemployment rates above 20%, reflecting a divorce between the markets and ‘main street’ that will raise questions for many on the role of capital in the world.

While it is entirely plausible that there will be regime changes as a result of these failures, most of the leaders in question have access to communication platforms that allow them to divert, obfuscate and blame others to avoid accountability. For some, the pandemic even provides an opportunity to increase their power, roll back liberties and assert greater control over the media in the name of containment. Clamping out dissent and protests becomes far easier in the name of a crisis that affects the entire public.

 

The World After the Pandemic: Potential Paths Ahead

A Changing World Context

In addition to the lessons above, the crisis has also laid bare a number of irrefutable geostrategic facts that are not only shaping countries’ responses to the virus today, but will emerge as the dominant world view when the crisis is eventually over. While the liberal order that has governed the world since the World War II has clearly been fraying, the coronavirus pandemic has made clear that the world is not better off with a populist one.

  • The US has Not Led the World. The current US Administration’s failure to lead the world in its biggest post-war crisis is a key geopolitical marker. If the aim of ‘America First’ was to usher in a new era of America looking after its own people ahead of others, it has not succeeded. Instead it has overseen the world’s largest national death toll at home, while not saving lives aboard either. The actions and fate of America during this crisis crystallise the notion that America is no longer the undisputed world leader. Given the death count (see chart), America has lost much soft power, being pitied during this crisis rather than admired, with far reaching consequences for American power and influence in the world. For those that rely on America for leadership, aid or assistance, which is most of the world, this is an unfolding tragedy.
  • China has Lost Credibility as a Trusted Partner. China’s delays in alerting the world to the virus and overall lack of transparency about the virus’ origins have exposed some of the worst aspects of their regime, confirming the view of some that China is not a trusted partner and aligning others on that idea, with the US, Germany, France and Australia calling for China to be held to account. China has responded with aggressive political lobbying and attempted to position itself as a leader in the battle against the pandemic by providing funding, tests and medical equipment to other countries, likely to little avail since the trust seems to have been irreparably broken for many.
  • A Battered Europe Requires Rejuvenation. Europe has suffered badly in the initial months of the pandemic, accounting for over 50% of total reported deaths to date (albeit the EU has nearly twice the population of the US). The crisis has brought new challenges to an EU still determining its way ahead following the departure of the UK earlier in the year. Differences in per capita mortality rates from COVID-19, ranging from fewer than 2 per 100,000 (in Greece) to over 50 (in Italy, Spain and the UK) have shown the differences in preparedness and responses between EU countries, which will likely also drive significant economic differences in the pandemic’s aftermath. How effectively the EU helps countries suffering is the question that will determine the cohesion of the EU, and whether it is a political union or an economic one.
  • Asia has Proven Far More Resilient and Competent. Despite the initial origins of the virus in their neighbourhood in China, East Asian countries have proven more resilient and adept than the West at managing their respective outbreaks through practical actions, learning rapidly from each other (to put that in perspective, the two worst performing Asian countries in terms of death rates, the Phillipines and Indonesia, still have seen less than 1 death per 100,000). With many in a position to re-open their economies, the region is demonstrating greater flexibility and resourcefulness, independence from the US, and with the benefit of more favourable demographics, population size and growth rates, Asia is well posiotioned to rise.
  • India has Proven that it can be Decisive in Rising to Big Challenges. Facing a potentially catastrophic impact from the virus given its large population and densely packed metros, and its lack of medical and other basic infrastructure, India has reacted early and decisively to significantly slow the spread of the virus, though the ensuing national lockdown has created major economic dislocation, and some cities have struggled to flatten the epidemic curve and are seeing ageing public healthcare systems reaching their capacity. After facing questions for many years about its ability to implement major structural changes to unlock its economic potential, India’s government at federal and state levels has proven that it indeed has the capability to make big decisions and execute complex actions at speed and scale . If it can now navigate re-opening its economy while keeping the virus under control – a massive task with 1.3 billion people, given how difficult this has been the world over – and use the pandemic as an impetus to address its key structural issues through investment and reforms, it will be well placed to accelerate the diversification away from China in its favour.

The pandemic has revealed and accelerated the reality of broader geostrategic trends shaping the 21st Century and foreshadows the transition underway to a new world order. For example, the fundamental geostrategic rise of Asia has been, perhaps (but not likely) coincidentally, reflected in its increased resilience during the pandemic vs. the West.

Seen over the longer term, it has also been clear that the fate of the 21st Century will be determined by America and Asia, and for Asia, China and India are the ones thatWhile it is entirely plausible that there will be regime changes as a result of these failures, most of the leaders in question have access to communication platforms that allow them to divert, obfuscate and blame others to avoid accountability. will make the biggest difference given their scale. So, the relationship and performance of these three, the US, China and India, matters to the world. While the US and China are the obvious countries on this list, the current crisis has highlighted clearly that neither country is ready, willing or capable of leading the world on their own at this juncture. It is clear that the US will need allies to exert influence and counter China, while China’s power has been exposed as being largely based on financial resources rather than hard power, moral leadership, or its network of alliances. For India to be an effective long-term counterweight to China, it will need to be able to compete with it in terms of financial firepower. India has demonstrated its ability to act effectively in the current crisis to date, but building this firepower will require longer-term investments not just by the US but by a broader range of partners and allies in the West and in the Greater Pacific region, such as Japan, Singapore and Australia.

 

The Inflection Point?

It takes the confluence of a number of events to tip the scales to anDespite the scale and scope of the global damage and trauma endured to date, if the world has not suffered enough, it will not forge a new path. irreversible change. Is the world at such a point now? The conditions for self-willed, managed change requires one to have no option but to accept that the platform is burning, a “point of surrender”, as far as travelling along the old way. In the context of world change, this requires: a traumatic crisis of world threatening magnitude; an exhausting war against it; and the acceptance of the futility of the previous solutions.

Despite the scale and scope of the global damage and trauma endured to date, if the world’s peoples and the major powers have not suffered sufficient devastation to reach a ‘point of surrender’, they will not collectively take on board the lessons learned, seek to address the root causes and strive to forge a new path. World War II met all three criteria and resulted in an effort to reimagine and forge a better world, including to rebuild Europe and Japan and create the international institutional architecture for long-term peace and prosperity. That took energy from an allied force and the US, which emerged as the leader of that force. It is possible that in the absence of leadership and united action, the world will instead turn inward, focus on returning to business as usual as quickly as possible, and await the next global disaster to test its will to change.

There are three potential paths that the world could take when it eventually emerges from the pandemic:

  1. Everyone for Themselves. Battered by the virus and the economic damage, large nations each adopt a populist mantra and their own version of the “America First” approach, erecting bigger and bigger trade, investment and immigration barriers in the name of national security, public health or economic self-reliance, and by doing so create more vulnerability at home and internationally. Addressing major global issues, including those exposed during this crisis, would be lost in the call to nationalism.
  2. A Return to Business as Usual. Exhausted by the effort of battling the virus, the world’s major powers seek to return to their earlier modus operandi in terms of domestic politics, economic management and international collaboration, failing to collectively address the lessons from the pandemic. On this path, the world manages to return to some semblance of ‘normality’, however remaining in transition, awaiting the inevitable next global crisis.
  3. The Great Transformation. The world’s major powers emerge from the pandemic, and united by their common suffering, look to learn the critical lessons from the crisis and forge a new global order and institutional architecture, not only to agree how to handle and where possible pre-empt future crises but also casting the net wide to other global issues such as economic inequality, climate change and infectious diseases.

The jury is still out as to whether it is this pandemic or something harsher that will force the world into a new system of organising. However, enough of the seeds of change have been witnessed and experienced by the world to provide a blueprint of what the future may look like.

 

The Great Transformation

The pandemic has highlighted the world’s potential to execute rapid transformation. In its response to the pandemic,If and when there is a Great Transformation, the characteristics of the new world that emerges are already becoming clear and create the possibility for a new more inclusive vision of man’s role on the planet, some may see it as more compassionate and others as just more pragmatic. the world has learned that it has the capability for unprecedented levels of mass collective action which were unthinkable months ago. These include changes to taken for granted freedoms (large-scale lockdowns and curfews with billions of people voluntarily staying at home); the nature of work (mass online and digital economies supported by physical delivery and minimal retail); industrial models (the rapid creation of new healthcare and industrial capacity to address shortfalls); and capitalism (the willingness and ability to shoulder costs and economic burdens, printing money at unprecedented scale). There have been unintended consequences as well, such as the marked improvement in air quality across cities as industry as transport has ground to a halt and energy consumption has plummeted.

If and when there is a Great Transformation, the characteristics of the new world that emerges are already becoming clear and create the possibility for a new more inclusive vision of man’s role on the planet, some may see it as more compassionate and others as just more pragmatic since it takes the lessons of the crisis to point to a more viable solution to how people can live on the planet in a more peaceful, prosperous, free and sustainable way. This would be a world that protects the biosphere, cultures and individuals, and one that helps its underprivileged in an systematic way, while encouraging and enabling growth and innovation that creates widespread prosperity, and rewarding those that led the way in making the breakthroughs.

Dimensions of this transformation include:

These transformations, if undertaken at scale, have the potential to lay the foundations of a new civilisation. They provide the agenda and levers for the world to make the transition, demonstrate how feasible they are, and also indicate how ready the world is as a result of this world crisis.

This paper does not examine the structure of geopolitical power, the nature and mandate of international institutions and the role of nations and communities in this transformation.

 

The Evolution of Disease Beyond Current Systems’ Resilience: The Tipping Point to Pre-empt

Given the current pandemic does not appear to be an extinction level event, it may be that major economies attempt to return to business as usual, with minor changes to the way they live. And so, a great transformation of the magnitude described above is put off for another day. However, this sets the world up for a much worse risk. Diseases are rapidly evolving, and the threat of bigger future pandemics will remain after the current pandemic is contained, and without the recognition that pandemics are a ‘terrorist level’ threat to society. Three key factors are relevant in escalating the threat to international security levels in an attempt to safeguard against a radically more lethal future pandemic:

 

This pandemic has been a warning. Once the warning has been given, and the suffering has been so widespread, it would seem that denial, obfuscation and delay would not be the mark of a great civilisation. However, this very behaviour has been in evidence at the top and throughout many societies through this crisis. So, the challenge is great for those that are ready for change to convince others.

 

Conclusion

This pandemic is not over and has more harm and suffering to inflict as it relentlessly attacks, in successive waves, across the world, moving its epicentre from zone to zone and returning to those that seem victorious. The response to this attack needs to be a professionally run war-like campaign, waged based on the Principles of War60 .

As for this score thus far, the world failed the test becuae it did not work together; the superpower that saved the world in two great wars failed to lead; and the current great power, the US, and the previous one, the UK, performed worse than much less powerful and influential countries, failing the most in saving their own people. However, there were heroic successes across the whole world that showed the ability to grasp the nature of the threat, mobilise tens and hundreds of millions to safety and at every level of society, sacrifices were made and heroes sacrificed themselves in serving others.

The pandemic did not wreak havoc on a ‘perfect’ world, it took advantage of fissures which had been building for years, and in some cases decades. The pandemic has revealed and accelerated several mega-trends which were at work well before, including: (i) rising inequality between and within nations; (ii) the fracture of a unipolar world order led by the US; (iii) the rise of Asia and large emerging markets like India; (iv) rising competition for scarce resources; (v) environmental degradation and calamities threatening economic and social stability; (vi) accelerating technological disruptions leading to a shift away from industrial jobs; and (vii) the changing nature of work and mental health. The impact of the pandemic has been to reveal, and likely accelerate, these changes, as the world copes with the trauma of deaths and unprecedented economic losses.

However, in exposing the world’s structural weaknesses, the pandemic has also revealed the nature of the solutions to many of the world’s biggest problems, and taught the world that it has the capacity to implement them at scale if it chooses to, or if and when it is forced to. The way forward seems clear and requires leaders to acknowledge and address issues that have been building up for too long. Countries that take the lessons from this crisis and implement transformational changes will find themselves as the winners, both economically and in terms of the quality of their societies and will see a rise in their global positions. They will also be more resilient and better prepared to face future crises, not just pandemics. The ten transformations described above are not simply ‘nice-to-have’ opportunities; each represents a major challenge which if left unaddressed, point to the fault lines of the next major crisis.

It is unclear if the world has suffered enough to collectively take on board these lessons and transform, or if that awakening will only happen after more suffering or another crisis. However, the future is now clearer and a better world can be built from the suffering.

Best Wishes

 

Notes:

  1. Source: Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center
  2. Source: Financial Times, New York Time analysis of excess deaths due to pandemic
  3. See the Sign leader from April 2020, The Coronavirus Pandemic Part I: A Global Test of Resilience, Leadership and Values
  4. Source: Tomas Pueyo, Medium, Coronavirus: Learning How to Dance, April 2020
  5. Source: IMF World Economic Outlook
  6. Source: BBC, Coronavirus: The world in lockdown in maps and charts, April 2020
  7. Source: UNESCO, COVID-19 Educational Disruption and Response
  8. Source: New York Times, https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/30/opinion/coronavirus-covid-vaccine.html
  9. See the Sign leader from May 2020, The Coronavirus Pandemic Part II: Waging the War
  10. See the Sign leader from April 2020, The Coronavirus Pandemic Part I: A Global Test of Resilience, Leadership and Values
  11. Source: Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center
  12. Source: Financial Times
  13. Month-on-Month percentage change; US reflects cumulative change in March (-4.5%) and April (-11%), Source: Trading Economics
  14. US Bureau of Economic Analysis
  15. Source: Goldman Sachs Research
  16. Source: World Trade Organization
  17. Source: ILO
  18. CBOE Volatility Index
  19. Source: Invest India
  20. Source: Kaiser Family Foundation Poll
  21. Source: Pew Research Center, https://www.journalism.org/2020/05/20/americans-who-rely-most-on-white-house-for-covid-19-news-more-likely-to-downplay-the-pandemic/
  22. The economic impact of the pandemic has been determined by estimating the percentage impact to 2020 GDP based on estimated 2020 GDP growth from IMF World Economic Outlook forecasts as of Oct-2019 (before pandemic) and Apr-2020 (after the pandemic). More recent 2020 growth estimates from other analysts for certain countries vary considerably. The health impact is based on the official number of deaths reported as of 26-May-2020 as a ratio of the country's population
  23. While Russia appears to be an exception to this due to the low number of deaths, it is important to note that Russia has adopted a significantly more stringent criteria of attributing a death to COVID-19 vs. other countries, counting a death in the official toll only if an autopsy directly links the cause of death exclusively to the virus, vs. other countries which are reporting deaths of COVID-19 positive patients recorded in hospital (irrespective of co-morbidities). While all methodologies under-count the likely number of deaths due to the pandemic (by not counting deaths at home, or deaths of suspected COVID-19 cases), Russia's criteria is so restrictive that its official death toll is therefore not comparable to figures for other countries (Source: Economist https://www.economist.com/europe/2020/05/19/russias-covid-19-outbreak-could-be-far-worse-than-the-kremlin-admits)
  24. Source: Kaiser Family Foundation, https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-policy-watch/growing-data-underscore-communities-color-harder-hit-covid-19/
  25. African Americans have accounted for c.23% of reported COVID-19 deaths despite being only 13% of the population Source: US CDC, CNBC, https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/27/as-us-coronavirus-deaths-cross-100000-black-americans-bear-disproportionate-share-of-fatalities.html
  26. Source: OECD
  27. Source: ILO
  28. Source: Brookings India, https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2020/04/16/are-slums-more-vulnerable-to-the-covid-19-pandemic-evidence-from-mumbai/
  29. Source: Kaiser Family Foundation Poll
  30. Source: Goldman Sachs Research and Deutsche Bank Research forecasts
  31. While there are valid questions over the accuracy of the count in a country of 1.3 billion with 70% living in the villages in normal times and a mass migration back to the villages during the crisis, some simple maths helps: to arrive at the relative death count of say the UK or America, it would need to have missed 400,000 to 700,000 deaths. And anything is possible, with a highly active press, an advanced data analytics industry and a highly participative democracy, the chances of completely missing this many deaths is low.
  32. Source: International Energy Agency
  33. Source: International Energy Agency
  34. International Energy Agency, Global Energy Review 2020, April 2020
  35. Source: Science Daily, https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/05/200511124444.htm
  36. Source: The News Stack; https://thenewstack.io/the-network-impact-of-the-global-covid-19-pandemic/
  37. Source: Speedtest.com
  38. Source: SimilarWeb
  39. Source: World Bank
  40. Based on US data (Source: COVID-19 and Remote Work: An Early Look at US Data, MIT, Stanford, National Bureau of Economic Research, April 2020
  41. Source: SimilarWeb
  42. Source: Global Workplace Analytics
  43. Source: UNESCO
  44. Source: AppAnnie, https://www.appannie.com/en/insights/mobile-minute/education-apps-grow-remote-learning-coronavirus/
  45. ibid
  46. Source: AppAnnie (Note: For Android Phones only)
  47. Source: PayPal Q1 2020 Investor Presentation
  48. Adapted from the April 2020 Sign of the Times: The Coronavirus Pandemic: A Global Test of Resilience, Leadership and Values
  49. Source: OECD
  50. Source: OECD, American Hospital Association
  51. Source: 2020, AEI, Institute, India Health Ministry, Public Health England, France-Director General of Health, German Health Ministry
  52. Source: ILO
  53. Source: CapitalIQ
  54. Source: Google Mobility Reports as of 13-May-2020, Average for Johannesburg, Nairobi, Berlin, San Francisco, Dubai, Tokyo, Seoul, Rio de Janeiro, Paris, London, New York and Mumbai (note: Google does not publish data for Chinese and Russian cities)
  55. Source: New York Times, https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/30/opinion/coronavirus-covid-vaccine.html
  56. Source: New York Times, https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/30/opinion/coronavirus-covid-vaccine.html
  57. There are significant efforts underway globally to deliver a vaccine by the end of 2020 with several leading American biotechnology collaborating on large-scale human trials in Q3 2020 (Source: Bloomberg)
  58. Source: Bloomberg, https://www.bloombergquint.com/china/when-8-trillion-in-global-fiscal-stimulus-still-isn-t-enough
  59. Source: World Bank, Major Infectious Diseases, 3rd Edition, Nov-2017
  60. See the Sign leader from May 2020, The Coronavirus Pandemic Part II: Waging the War
  61. See The Shape of the World to Come Part III: The Path to a New World Order