Ideas

Peace

In a world set to reach nearly 10 billion inter-connected people, power will come from creating peace, prosperity and freedom so that we can make breakthroughs in how we live together, and this requires a transformation in the very definition of power, and the purpose and principles by which it is exercised

GPC’s Macro Thought Leadership

GPC’s research focuses on the geostrategic changes in the world and the implications of for peace, prosperity and freedom. Our analysis seeks to find the patterns and identify the new forces that are the signs of our times and will determine the future of the world


The world is in a historic transition of great power hegemony, world order, population and resources which will change the very nature of civilisation. These transformations create discontinuities and a dynamic canvas on which the world’s future will be written

The 21st Century has been widely predicted to be the Asian Century, in which the continent, home to 60% of the world’s population, will become the world’s dominant economic, political and even cultural force. Within this continent of 49 countries, two will disproportionately impact the trajectory of the 21st Century on account of their scale and growth potential: China and India. The relationship between these two countries as well as the trialogue with the world’s current hegemon, the United States, will will be critical to shaping global economic and political trends for generations to come.

 

A modern India lifting a billion people out of poverty will need a large, modern and diversified economy to not only realize the aspirations of people but also to clothe, feed, employ and educate what will become the world’s largest population within the next five years and this will require an India that is open to the world and dedicated to unlocking the potential of its people and its assets

 

We bring our network of business leaders, entrepreneurs, influencers and thinkers who are at the frontline of change across to provide insights into the global issues that are rapidly changing the world and how they see an impact being made for good

 

We recognise the complex and rapidly changing nature of India’s markets and economy as it grows and expands internationally and have focused the firm’s thought leadership on detailed research to generate insights into the macro-environment, market strategy, investment opportunities and challenges to generate attractive risk adjusted returns

We live in revolutionary times. Increasingly political, economic and social volatility is driving change on a global level, creating both risks and opportunities for international investors. Greater Pacific Capital’s thought leadership and investing strategy placed it at the forefront of global change

Selected news that makes the difference

India, Germany Sign US$10.5bn Green Deal to Boost Clean Energy.

Both countries inked several agreements focused on sustainable development, under which India would receive US$10.5 billion assistance by 2030 to boost the use of clean energy.

RBI Announces First-Rate Hike Since August 2018 of 40bps.

The Reserve Bank of India announced a hike in benchmark interest rates by 40 basis points to 4.40% on the backdrop of inflation rising alarmingly and spreading fast globally.

India Reported Highest FDI Inflow Worth US$83bn in FY22.

The figures for FY22 have overtaken the previous financial year by US$1.6 billion despite the Ukraine war and Covid-19 pandemic, continuing to indicate that India remains a key market for foreign investment.

Global Wheat Prices Rise Almost 6% as India Export Ban Shakes Markets.

Wheat prices rose by the maximum amount allowed after India imposed a ban on exports, stoking pressure on food costs as tight global supplies roiled international markets.

India Joins First Movers Coalition to Decarbonise Key Sectors.

India alongside the US, Denmark, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore, Sweden, and the UK have joined the First Movers Coalition, a global initiative aimed at decarbonising the heavy industry and long-distance transport sectors responsible for 30% of global emissions.

GDP Growth at 22-year High of 8.7% Despite Sluggish Q4.

The Indian economy expanded at its fastest pace in nearly 22 years in 2021-22 at 8.7%, but growth slowed to a four quarter-low of 4.1% in the three months to January-March due to the impact of the curbs imposed against the backdrop of the Omicron variant of the coronavirus.

Spotlight on the key monthly news events shaping media coverage in India

Media coverage in India this month covered Prime Minister Modi’s visit to Tokyo to attend the Quad Summit, India joining the Indo-Pacific Economic Bloc led by the US and the implications of India’s surging domestic inflation reaching an 8-year high

 

Prime Minister Narendra Modi Attends Quad Summit 2022 in Tokyo, Japan

 

Prime Minister Narendra Modi arrived in Japan on a two-day visit to attend a summit of the Quad leaders, a visit was aimed at further bolstering cooperation among the member nations of the influential grouping and discussing developments in the Indo-Pacific region. During his visit, the Prime Minister had bilateral meetings with the principals of the other Quad countries, with the meetings serving to refocus attention on the Indo-Pacific and the role of China. Various media publications focused on how the visit was crucial not only for India’s future relations with Japan but also to maintain its stronghold in the Asia-Pacific region.

 

During his visit to Tokyo, Prime Minister Narendra Modi wrote an op-ed for the Yomiuri Shimbun one of the five major newspapers of Japan, highlighting the key elements of the India-Japan relationship and laying out potential areas of partnership between the two countries including through Japanese technology and opportunities for long-term involvement in Japanese leadership and business across various avenues in India. “cultural ties (between the two countries) go back centuries. A strong belief in sharing the values of democracy, freedom, and rule-based international order, as well as the alignment of regional and global perspectives, underlies trust and the relationship between India and Japan as a genuine partner… Japan has also proved that India is an irreplaceable collaborator in the process of promoting development and modernization. From the automobile industry to the industrial corridor, Japan's investment and development support extends throughout India. The high-speed rail project between Mumbai and Ahmedabad symbolizes Japan's broad cooperation in the most important efforts towards a new India.”

Key insights and forecasts that show us what is to come

Russia’s Unlucky Past Has a Stranglehold on Its Future.

Authoritarian modernization in Russia is impossible but in the post-Putin future, normal modernization will be possible, based on democratic development and the rotation of power.

Corruption Could Mean Ukraine Loses a Future Peace.

Ukraine can win this war but in dealing with the aftermath of the devastation Russia has wrought, it could still lose the peace; a failed reconstruction process, derailed by Ukraine’s own kleptocrats, further poses serious threat to the Ukrainian state.

What Does US$40 Billion in Aid to Ukraine Imply?

Although some elements of the aid package will be available quickly, many will take years to fully implement, and this raises questions about why long-term elements could not have gone through the regular congressional authorization and budget processes.

How the War in Ukraine is Accelerating India’s Desire for Tech Autonomy.

Uneasy with both Russia’s invasion and Western sanctions, India is even more convinced that it must diversify its technology partnerships and develop more homegrown capabilities.

What Would be the Impact of Finland and Sweden Joining NATO?

Sweden stayed neutral in World War 2 and for more than two centuries has avoided joining military alliances, while Finland shares a border with Russia and stayed out of NATO to avoid antagonizing its eastern neighbour; now both have confirmed they will apply for NATO membership in a historic shift that comes as a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

What’s Next for Britain’s Defence Strategy?

The UK’s shadow secretary of state for defence John Healey MP outlines the Labour Party’s vision for what is next with Britain’s defence strategy after the invasion of Ukraine.

What’s Next for Britain’s Defence Strategy?

The UK’s shadow secretary of state for defence John Healey MP outlines the Labour Party’s vision for what is next with Britain’s defence strategy after the invasion of Ukraine.

Brexit Reality Bites as Stagflation Looms.

The UK outlook for stagflation of rising prices and slowing economic growth this year and next reflects the realities that Brexit has wrought.

How to Make Biden’s Free World Strategy Work.

The United States spent decades trying to draw Moscow and Beijing into the international system; now it must strengthen the free world around them, and reduce their ability to do harm, until their internal politics shift or their power fades.

The United Arab Emirates’ Long-Term Goals in Syria: Managing Militant Proxies and Geopolitical Adversaries.

The UAE’s overtures to Damascus are driven by a complex network of motivations, but at the heart they are all focused on the UAE’s desire to expand outreach across the region and portray itself as the region’s bastion of stability and these goals are clearly being viewed through a long lens.

The Case for Placing AI at the Heart of Digitally Robust Financial Regulation.

The key to achieving optimal outcomes is to use both data and AI in thoughtful ways – carefully designing new systems to prevent harm, while seizing on AI’s ability to analyse volumes of information that would overwhelm traditional methods of analysis.

What Should We Learn from the Economic Policy Response to COVID-19?

The COVID-19 downturn was sharp, but the ensuing economic recovery was faster and stronger than nearly any forecaster anticipated. What was the effect of the economic policy response, and did it come with trade-offs?

Creating an Enabling Environment for Sustainable Water Infrastructure Financing.

For true sustainable infrastructure, donors and local governments should also invest in support to maintain infrastructure and create a regulatory environment that enables continued improvement.

The Key Events Driving Global Instability & Opportunity

Big Picture TEST Metrics for the US, India and China, February 2022

India’s Manufacturing PMI was down to 55.5 in December 2021 from a tenth-month high of 57.6 in October, remaining in the growth territory, amid slower rise in sales and new orders, even as business sentiment was dampened by concerns surrounding supply-chain disruptions, COVID-19 and inflationary pressures. Exports and imports grew by 39% and 40% respectively as compared to the same period last year driven by rising international demand for Indian goods. No further rate cut was announced by the RBI during this month.

 

China’s Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 in December 2021 from 50.1 in November, slightly above market expectations of 50. The latest reading pointed to a modest growth rate in the manufacturing sector, which is expected to remain subdued at the start of the new year due to uncertainties brought by the pandemic outbreak in Xian and Omicron variant. Exports and imports grew by 21% and 20% respectively as compared to the same period last year.