Ideas

Peace

The period of slower economic activity will be prolonged, with the next five years witnessing less than 3% growth, “our lowest medium-term growth forecast since 1990, and well below the average of 3.8% from the past two decades," IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva said. Further explaining, she said, “Some momentum comes from emerging economies — Asia especially is a bright spot. India and China are expected to account for half of global growth in 2023."

The FTA talks mark a step-up in economic relations between the two countries despite calls from Western countries for India to gradually distance itself from its dominant weapons supplier and top supplier of crude oil.

A UK Department for Business and Trade spokesperson said both countries are “committed to delivering an ambitious and mutually beneficial FTA” while adding they concluded the latest round of talks last month. The India-UK trade partnership was worth GBP 34 billion in 2022 growing by GBP 10 billion in one year.

After a hiatus in 2022, India has re-joined Kearney's foreign direct investment (FDI) confidence index list in the 16th position, signalling a renewed interest from foreign investors in the Indian markets. Kearney says that even as the global economic sentiment is somewhat in the doldrums, business leaders are showing signs of optimism.

India’s PE-VC investments in the Asia-Pacific region increased from 15% to 20% between 2021 and 2022 due to China’s tailwinds and India’s macroeconomic robustness, amid decelerating capital flow in the region.

India has been elected to the highest statistical body of the United Nations for a four-year term beginning January 1, 2024. External Affairs Minister said the country’s expertise in the field of statistics, diversity and demography had earned it the seat.

Media coverage in the world this month covered escalating Israel-Palestine tensions and Russia assuming the presidency of the UN Security Council.

Escalating Israel-Palestine Tensions

While international attention is consumed by Russia’s war in Ukraine, tensions are flaring in the Middle East between Israel and Palestine. 81 Palestinians and 14 Israelis have already been killed in between January and March 2023, according to the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs. Media coverage seeks to explore the role that China, EU and Japan can play amid the escalating tensions.

An op-ed article in Asia Times analysed how China’s mediation won’t solve Israeli-Palestinian conflict as Beijing’s main goal is to chip away at US prestige in the region. “China’s push into the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is an apparent assault on America’s position in the Middle East. And it doesn’t come out of thin air. Israel and China have quietly developed close military and trade relations over the past decades, much to the ire of the US… Behind the European Union and the US, China is Israel’s third-largest trading partner. But what’s important to note is where the trade flows are focused. According to Time magazine, 492 of the 507 trade deals between the two countries from 2002 to 2022 were in the technology sector, including IT, communications, agricultural tech, and robotics. China has also pushed its infrastructure initiatives in Israel in the past decade. In 2021, Chinese companies were involved in expanding the Haifa port. Washington expressed serious reservations about the partnership because the US often uses Haifa to dock parts of its Sixth Fleet. Israel rejected the request when the US demanded to inspect the port to ensure there wasn’t any Chinese surveillance technology that could snoop on the Sixth Fleet… China’s push into Middle Eastern diplomacy has more to do with its status as a superpower chipping away at American prestige in the region than solving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.”

Finally, an article in Carnegie Europe explained how the prolonged conflict between Israel and Palestine is leading to democratic deterioration in both territories and how the EU and its member states should root their responses in liberal democratic values. “The EU needs to rethink its approach to Israel and the Palestinian territory in light of these twin deteriorations. Israel and the PA have been moving in illiberal directions for years, but the EU has never adjusted its policy. Instead, it has deepened its ties with Israel despite the emerging one-state reality and the country’s widening democratic deficit. Meanwhile, the EU and its member states have poured funding into the supposed kernel of a Palestinian state, regardless of the PA’s democratic backsliding, corruption, and repression of popular dissent. Further, Europeans have entrenched the Palestinian political divide by maintaining a no-contact policy toward the Hamas de facto government in Gaza, after designating Hamas as a terror organization… In the face of Russia’s war in Ukraine, it may be tempting for European countries to avert their gaze from the Middle East. But the EU must not be a bystander. If European countries continue to pursue old and broken policies, they will see Israel-Palestine descend into significant violence and bloodshed, with the risk of spillover to other parts of the region. A paradigm shift in the EU’s approach may not be imminent given the realpolitik, but there are steps the EU can take to, at the very least, do no harm.”

A press release by the Government of Japan covered how the country condemned the rise of violence and supported a two-state solution with regard to the Middle East peace. “The Government of Japan strongly condemns all forms of violence over the past week and expresses its serious concern over the growing tensions on the ground. As we have entered the season of holy days for both Muslims and Jews, it is all the more important to respect the sanctity of the holy place… Japan urges all the parties concerned to exercise maximum restraint and refrain from violence and provocative actions in order to avoid further escalation of the situation.”

Russia Assumes UN Security Council Presidency

On 1^st April 2023, Russia assumed presidency of the UN Security Council despite Ukraine urging members to block the move. Each of the council's 15 members takes up the presidency for a month, on a rotating pattern and the last time Russia had the presidency, February 2022, it launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The move implies that Security Council is being led by a country whose president is subject to an international arrest warrant for alleged war crimes. Media coverage widely criticized the move but commented on failure to block it due to procedural reasons.

An article in PBS covered Russia’s stance and how it dismissed U.S. and E.U. descriptions of its presidency of the Security Council this month as an April Fool’s joke. “Russian Ambassador Vassily Nebenzia told reporters there will be no change in the rules of the council, which is charged with maintaining international peace and security, and he said Russia will be “an honest broker” … Nebenzia responded to the U.S. ambassador’s expectation that Russia will spread disinformation about Ukraine by calling it “a Western narrative” and stressing that “we think just the opposite.” He said Russia plans to hold an informal council meeting on Wednesday on what Moscow claims is disinformation being spread by Western officials and media about the Ukrainian children taken to Russia. He said the aim of the meeting is “to dispel this narrative” that they were abducted.”

An article in CNBC focussed on the blistering criticism from the U.S. and Western allies for Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine and for its trampling of the U.N. Charter. “Linda Thomas-Greenfield, the U.S. ambassador to the U.N., placed the blame squarely back on Russia during her opening remarks before the 15-member group. “Our hypocritical convener today, Russia, invaded its neighbor Ukraine and struck at the heart of the U.N. Charter,” Thomas-Greenfield said, referring to the U.N.’s founding document that vows to preserve sovereignty, peace, justice and the prevention of war… U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, who sat next to Lavrov, criticized Russia’s war, saying it was in violation of the United Nations Charter and international law. The conflict, he said, was “causing massive suffering and devastation to the country and its people and adding to the global economic dislocation triggered by the Covid-19 pandemic.” He warned that tensions between the world’s major powers were at a “historic high” … Britain’s U.N. Ambassador Barbara Woodward said Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine has brought “unimaginable suffering to that country while trampling on the U.N. Charter.” “Thousands of Ukrainians have been killed and millions have been displaced,” she said, adding that billions of people around the world are feeling the brunt of higher energy prices and food insecurity because of the Kremlin’s ongoing conflict. She added the war also has triggered “an unmitigated disaster for Russia too.” Japan’s envoy also blasted Moscow’s war and demanded an immediate withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine.”

Finally, an op-ed article in Newsweek was of the opinion that Russia’s presidency was immaterial and ineffective and hence the initial outrage was not worth the time and effort. “The outrage surrounding Russia's Security Council presidency was always a bit over the top—not because Moscow being at the head of the table wasn't unpleasant but rather because the position was essentially a powerless one, more pomp and circumstance than authority… At most, the presiding country gets to pick a unique theme for the month and organize additional meetings other members don't even have to attend… Looking back on Russia's brief presidency, one has to question whether all of the freak outs and gyrations were worth the time and energy. On a moral level, the answer is yes. But in terms of practicality, the answer is most assuredly no… While Russian officials would say otherwise, the whole business of being president was probably more trouble for Russia than it was worth. Lavrov's harangue in New York against U.S. hegemony and Western arrogance will provide Russian state broadcasters some juicy TV clippings for the nightly propaganda shows, but it will do nothing to change minds in the court of public opinion. In fact, Lavrov's high-profile appearance gave the U.S. and its allies a golden, high-profile opportunity to call him out for spouting nonsense… Russia's presidency was a minor event, and far too much ink was spilled psychoanalyzing it.”

EU member states’ policies toward China have been hardening, but different national interests prevent a joint, coherent approach to Beijing. It may take a conflict over Taiwan to unify Europe.

Once China begins to take seriously the need to rebalance its economy, China’s annual GDP growth is unlikely to exceed 2–3% for many years, unless there is a substantial increase in the growth rate of consumption.

The Washington Declaration, issued by presidents Joe Biden and Yoon Suk-yeol, expands nuclear consultations between the United States and South Korea, however, U.S. credibility must prove durable for swift implementation.

The United States should certainly help India to the degree compatible with American interests, but it should harbour no illusions that its support, no matter how generous, will entice India to join it in any military coalition against China.

India now has the world’s largest population—and is trying to find ways not to.

The primary demand of the 2022 protests – the removal of Gotabaya Rajapaksa from his role as president – has been achieved, but the secondary demand of “system change” has not.

The scramble to win the GPT race could divert essential resources from the development of more socially meaningful uses of AI.

If the Framework Agreement is signed and free elections follow, the Islamist faction will lose any chance of retaking control of Sudan, short of mounting yet another coup, one that, in the current environment, would meet with massive resistance in the streets as well as in the international arena.

The US and Europe must secure the critical metals upon which the industry inevitably relies. In a world marked by war and increased animosity towards China, advanced economies will need to foster greater proximity with Brazil, South Africa, and India.

China’s increasing influence around the world, on the one hand, can be traced back to President Xi’s flagship project, the Belt Road Initiative, and on the other, China’s ambition to dominate in several key industries as outlined in the Made in China 2025 document.