Ideas

Peace

In a world set to reach nearly 10 billion inter-connected people, power will come from creating peace, prosperity and freedom so that we can make breakthroughs in how we live together, and this requires a transformation in the very definition of power, and the purpose and principles by which it is exercised

GPC’s Macro Thought Leadership

GPC’s research focuses on the geostrategic changes in the world and the implications of for peace, prosperity and freedom. Our analysis seeks to find the patterns and identify the new forces that are the signs of our times and will determine the future of the world

We bring our network of business leaders, entrepreneurs, influencers and thinkers who are at the frontline of change across to provide insights into the global issues that are rapidly changing the world and how they see an impact being made for good

 

We recognise the complex and rapidly changing nature of India’s markets and economy as it grows and expands internationally and have focused the firm’s thought leadership on detailed research to generate insights into the macro-environment, market strategy, investment opportunities and challenges to generate attractive risk adjusted returns

We live in revolutionary times. Increasingly political, economic and social volatility is driving change on a global level, creating both risks and opportunities for international investors. Greater Pacific Capital’s thought leadership and investing strategy placed it at the forefront of global change

Selected news that makes the difference

RBI Increases Key Lending Rate by 35 bps, Pegs GDP Growth at 6.8%.

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank of India increased the repo rate by 35 bps to 6.25%. The focus on inflation control continues to bring down inflation, first below 6% and then closer to the 4% target.

India, Germany Sign Mobility Agreement to Make Travel Easier Between Countries.

India and Germany agreed to pursue further cooperation on education and qualifications, particularly the establishment of digital preparatory courses that Indian students can enrol in before beginning their university courses in Germany.

UK Trade Secretary Kemi Badenoch Visits India for 6th Round of FTA talks, 1st Since July.

Badenoch met her counterpart minister of commerce and industry Piyush Goyal in person for the first time to strengthen ties between the two countries and reinvigorate talks on an ambitious bilateral trade deal.

India Increasingly Viable Investment Destination: EIU.

India’s business environment is now competitive with that of China and South-east Asia and the country could attract more foreign investments, the Economist Intelligence Unit said in a report. Improvements in India’s business environment and progress in bilateral trade deals make it an increasingly viable investment destination.

India-focused Funds Sitting on Highest-ever Unallocated Corpus of US$12.9 Billion.

India-focused private equity and venture capital (PE/VC) players are sitting on unallocated capital of US$12.88 billion – the highest since at least 2016. Indian start-ups are in a unique position, especially with China now falling off the investors' list as the most preferred nation.

India Widens Global Lead in Research and Development FDI.

India has seen a massive increase of FDI into research and development (R&D) in 2022, as multinationals seek to increase their technical talent base and diversify their innovation activities away from China. The country attracted as many foreign R&D projects as China, US and UK combined in 2022.

Spotlight on the key monthly news events shaping media coverage in India

Media coverage in the world this month covered Taliban rulers ordering an indefinite ban on university education for the country’s women and four-decade high inflation levels causing a cost-of-living crisis in the UK and Europe.

 

Taliban Rulers Ordering an Indefinite Ban on University Education for the Country’s Women

Media coverage from around the world was overwhelmingly critical of the blanket ban on education for women and other decisions banishing women from public life in Afghanistan. The return of public executions and floggings as punishments in keeping with Sharia law, has belied hopes that this Taliban regime would be different from the one of 1996-2001.

 

An article in Financial Tribune discussed how Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan denounced the Taliban’s order as inhumane and un-Islamic. “There is no such thing in our religion. No one should define any ban like that based on Islam. Islam does not accept such a thing. On the contrary, we are members of a religion that says 'seek knowledge from the cradle to the grave’… Turkey initiated an extraordinary meeting of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), which called on the Afghan interim government to review its ban on women's education and working in educational and non-government organisations. The OIC also decided to send a religious delegation led by the International Islamic Fiqh Academy (IIFA) to emphasise that women's and girls' access to all levels of education, including university level, is a fundamental right in keeping with the teachings of the “noble Islamic shariah”. Erdogan said the Turkish foreign ministry as well as himself "will personally follow up on" the state of women's education in Afghanistan and would not leave it unchecked.”

 

An article in PBS explored how despite the global backlash, the minister of higher education in the Taliban government defended his decision to ban women from universities “In an interview with Afghan television, Nida Mohammad Nadim pushed back against the widespread international condemnation, including from Muslim-majority countries such as Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Qatar. Nadim said that foreigners should stop interfering in Afghanistan’s internal affairs… Discussing the matter for the first time in public, Nadim said the ban issued earlier this week was necessary to prevent the mixing of genders in universities and because he believes some subjects being taught violated the principles of Islam. He said the ban was in place until further notice.”

 

Finally, an article in AlJazeera analysed how the Taliban’s anti-education edicts will harm Afghan society as a whole. “The recent edict to ban women from higher education in Afghanistan is not only a blow to those directly affected but to all of Afghan society because it further erodes the little hope for progress remaining in the country… It is not only Afghans affected by these policies who are starting to question the government’s stance on women’s education. There is also discontent among some high-ranking Taliban officials as those working in relevant ministries found themselves unable to offer anything to people demanding answers and solutions.”

 

 

Four Decade High Inflation Levels Causing a Cost-of-Living Crisis in the UK and Europe

The cost of living is climbing at an exceptionally fast pace across the OECD, with inflation in most OECD countries reaching levels not seen in the last four decades and the UK's cost of living is the most affected of advanced economies. Global media commentary sought to highlight the implications of the crisis.

 

An article in European Parliament discussed how Europeans are concerned by the crisis and expect additional EU measures. “The rising cost of living is the most pressing worry for 93% of Europeans, finds the latest European Parliament Eurobarometer survey. Meanwhile, support for the EU remains stable at a high level and citizens expect the EU to continue working on solutions to mitigate the effects of the crises… Citizens expect the EU to continue working on solutions to mitigate the compounding effects of the consecutive crises that have hit the continent. High support for the EU is based on the experience of past years, with the EU demonstrating a remarkable capacity to unite and to deploy effective measures. For now, citizens are not satisfied by the actions taken either at national or at EU level. Only a third of Europeans express satisfaction with measures taken by their national governments or the EU to tackle the rising cost of living.”

 

An article in The Scotsman cited a new research that shows families across the UK have only experienced half of the lost income and that the biggest impact of dramatically falling living standards is yet to hit. “New analysis from the Resolution Foundation think-tank suggests the average household across the country will be left £2,100 worse off by the end of the next financial year. After housing costs, the typical income for a working age family is set to drop by 3 per cent in the year to the end of March, followed by a 4 per cent drop over the following 12 months. The 7 per cent drop will hit families harder than during the financial crisis more than a decade ago… Even though the crisis is not even at the half-way point yet, the authors of the report said millions are already struggling to cope with the massive spike in costs they have seen this year.”

 

Finally, an article in The Guardian argued how the crisis is hitting everyone’s incomes except the richest UK billionaires, whose numbers are up by 20% since pandemic. “The number of UK billionaires has increased by a fifth since the onset of the Covid pandemic… This sudden explosion in extreme wealth was in large part due to measures aimed at lessening the impact of Covid-19 on the economy, as central banks pumped trillions of dollars into financial markets, leading to a stock market boom which effectively lined the pockets of shareholders… While Covid-19 saw billionaire wealth rise to levels never seen before, the construction of the economic infrastructure that has enabled this mass accumulation stretches back over the last four decades.”

Key insights and forecasts that show us what is to come

30 Developing Countries to Watch in 2023.

Developing countries will continue to face overlapping crises with little to no fiscal space for addressing them. In the short term, debt and humanitarian distress are pressing threats, while in the longer term, climate action and spending on sustainable development goals (SDGs) remain priorities. If ignored, any one of these areas could have serious consequences for millions of people.

A Thoughtful Vision of the Future of Globalization.

Countries should condition economic relations on political values, implicitly overturning the notion of uniform treatment across trade partners that has underpinned the GATT/WTO system for 75 years.

How Russia’s War Is Impacting the Global Environmental Agenda.

A fall in Russia’s GDP, decrease in its share in the global economy, and depopulation could all reduce greenhouse gas emissions in Russia, but can hardly be seen as genuine decarbonization.

Enabling an Economic Transformation of Ukraine.

Experience has shown that countries should begin planning for the post-war period before the end of a war. The geostrategic stakes in Ukraine are such that failure could have disastrous consequences not just for Ukraine but also for the broader region.

The Planet’s Future Depends on a Stable China-U.S. Relationship.

China-U.S. relations should not be a zero-sum game in which one side out-competes the other or one nation thrives at the expense of the other. The world is wide enough for China and the United States to both develop and prosper. The successes of our two countries are shared opportunities, not winner-take-all challenges.

Policy Prescriptions for U.S.-China Relations.

China and the United States are in a competitive downward spiral that if not reversed could drastically damage the two countries and damage the rest of the world.

Lula Can’t Simply Count on China This Time.

Lula’s aspirations for Brasilia’s relationship with Beijing, if similar to those of his previous presidency, would not be well suited for China of 2023.

Indian Rupee May Stage a Comeback in Second Half of 2023.

Forecasting a fate for Indian Rupee, Shinhan Bank, a premiere South Korean Investment Bank, has said that USD/INR is expected to weaken in the first half of 2023, due to economic slowdown but is likely to rebound in the second half.

Can Kazakhstan Rescue Europe Amid the Russian Oil Embargo?

While enough evidence supports the idea that Moscow will not hamper the export of Kazakhstani oil to Europe in 2023, the hope that Russia will allow the use of its pipeline infrastructure to increase foreign exports and enrich its neighbours is foolish.

Africa in 2023: Continuing Political and Economic Volatility.

Despite few African trade and financial links with Russia and Ukraine, the war in Ukraine will cause civil strife in Africa due to food and energy inflation.

Big Picture TEST Metrics for the US, India and China, February 2022

India’s Manufacturing PMI was down to 55.5 in December 2021 from a tenth-month high of 57.6 in October, remaining in the growth territory, amid slower rise in sales and new orders, even as business sentiment was dampened by concerns surrounding supply-chain disruptions, COVID-19 and inflationary pressures. Exports and imports grew by 39% and 40% respectively as compared to the same period last year driven by rising international demand for Indian goods. No further rate cut was announced by the RBI during this month.

 

China’s Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 in December 2021 from 50.1 in November, slightly above market expectations of 50. The latest reading pointed to a modest growth rate in the manufacturing sector, which is expected to remain subdued at the start of the new year due to uncertainties brought by the pandemic outbreak in Xian and Omicron variant. Exports and imports grew by 21% and 20% respectively as compared to the same period last year.