In a world set to reach nearly 10 billion inter-connected people, power will come from creating peace, prosperity and freedom so that we can make breakthroughs in how we live together, and this requires a transformation in the very definition of power, and the purpose and principles by which it is exercised

GPC’s Macro Thought Leadership

GPC’s research focuses on the geostrategic changes in the world and the implications of for peace, prosperity and freedom. Our analysis seeks to find the patterns and identify the new forces that are the signs of our times and will determine the future of the world

We bring our network of business leaders, entrepreneurs, influencers and thinkers who are at the frontline of change across to provide insights into the global issues that are rapidly changing the world and how they see an impact being made for good


We recognise the complex and rapidly changing nature of India’s markets and economy as it grows and expands internationally and have focused the firm’s thought leadership on detailed research to generate insights into the macro-environment, market strategy, investment opportunities and challenges to generate attractive risk adjusted returns

We live in revolutionary times. Increasingly political, economic and social volatility is driving change on a global level, creating both risks and opportunities for international investors. Greater Pacific Capital’s thought leadership and investing strategy placed it at the forefront of global change

Selected news that makes the difference

India’s GDP Growth Accelerates to 7.8% in April-June Quarter.

While this is lower than the 13.5 per cent GDP growth in the first quarter of the previous year, India’s economy has been growing at a steady pace and is likely to improve further during the upcoming festive season.

India’s Foreign Trade Crosses US$800 Billion Mark in First Six Months of 2023.

A healthy growth in India’s services segments has helped the country’s total exports and imports of goods and services to cross the US$800 billion mark during the first half of 2023, despite a slowdown in global demand.

India's FDI Outflow Rises 73% to US$1.85 Billion in July Over June.

Interrupting a two-month streak of decline, outward foreign direct investment (FDI) rose sequentially to US$1.85 billion in July over US$1.07 billion in June, an increase of 73 per cent.

SEBI to Ease Exit Norms for PE/VC Funds with Illiquid Assets in AIFs.

The Securities and Exchange Board of India is considering giving relaxations to alternative investment funds that have not wound down or liquidated their assets for many years. There are over 100 such private equity and venture capital funds, with total assets in the vicinity of ₹15,000-20,000 crore, according to industry estimates.

UK-India Trade Talks Enter Final, Trickier Stage.

UK trade talks with India are reaching their "final but trickier" stages, according to government sources. "They committed to delivering agreements with India and with the United States by the end of 2022 yet failed to meet their own deadline. So them trumpeting the latest round of trade talks falls far short the concrete action needed to get any deal across the line."

Spotlight on the key monthly news events shaping media coverage in India

Media coverage in the world this month covered European Commission adopting the European Sustainability Reporting Standards and The Netherlands entering recession.


European Commission Adopts the European Sustainability Reporting Standards

In January 2023, the European Union adopted the Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD), which requires EU and non-EU companies with activities in the EU to file annual sustainability reports alongside their financial statements. These reports must be prepared in accordance with European Sustainability Reporting Standards (ESRS). On July 31, 2023, the European Commission adopted the first set of ESRS. The ESRS soon will become law and will apply directly in all 27 EU member states, but not in the UK. Companies will need to report in compliance with these new ESRS as early as the 2024 reporting period. The standards are notable for their breadth and granularity, going well beyond the reporting requirements in other mandatory and voluntary ESG reporting frameworks. Media coverage sought to explore the implications of this on the EU, US and emerging countries like India.


An article in European Business Review explored how the world is facing a dramatic change in corporate reporting and how sustainability is increasingly at the core of decision-making. “It is about the harmonisation of corporate sustainability reporting on ecological, social, and governance (ESG) dimensions. Politicians and customers are increasingly putting sustainability at the heart of regulation and purchase decisions. For the investors, there is compelling evidence that corporate investment and improvements in ESG practices generate an ESG premium, and/or make companies more resilient in the face of crisis… Whether big or small, the rules of the game are being changed forever. The new era of stronger sustainability reporting comes along with multiple possible crossroads that companies must navigate and prepare for.”


An article in Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis critiqued how the EU ESG rating regulation shows limited coherence with wider EU sustainable finance framework. “The European Commission’s latest proposal to regulate environmental, social and governance rating activities does not explicitly adhere to the principle of double materiality—an approach that underpins the European Union’s broader sustainable finance regime… In IEEFA’s view, the lack of a coherent sustainable finance framework would lessen the proposed regulation’s effectiveness in addressing ESG rating activities’ shortcomings and suitability for fulfilling the European Green Deal objectives… New rules covering areas such as organisational structure, processes and transparency appear to be a breakthrough, but IEEFA notes a series of recommendations for improvement.”


An article in ING examined how the US is slowly catching up with Europe on ESG and climate policies. “The US and EU are both heading toward tougher regulations on ESG disclosure and standardisation. But there is a contrast between the difficulties America is facing in establishing Environmental, Social and Governance regulations versus the progress made in Europe… In the US, despite the Biden administration’s and SE’s efforts to mandate ESG-related disclosure for eligible listed companies, the country faces a fragmented policy environment, both at the federal and the state levels, where anti-ESG movements have been on the rise. This may lead to longer timeframes for ESG policy implementation or even the reversal of already-established policies, which will add uncertainties and risks to investors and companies… That said, there is still hope for the US to catch up with the EU in terms of ESG regulation; the biggest concern is that the progress will not happen as fast.”


India’s Chandrayaan-3 Becomes First Probe to Land Near Lunar South Pole


Two robots from India — a lander named Vikram and a rover named Pragyan — landed in the southern polar region of the moon on 23rd August 2023. The two robots, from a mission named Chandrayaan-3, make India the first country to ever reach this part of the lunar surface in one piece — and only the fourth country ever to land on the moon. Media coverage sought to explore reactions on the historic achievement as well as the implications on Indian Space Research Organization’s (ISRO) future expeditions.


An article in Business Line covered how the US hailed India on the moon landing and was proud to be its partner. “American politicians, newspapers and space research institutions hailed India Wednesday on the successful Moon landing of Chandrayaan-3 as the country entered the elite club of three other nations — United States, Russia and China — that have a rover on the lunar surface…“"It is an incredible feat for all the scientists and engineers involved. We are proud to partner with you on this mission and space exploration more broadly”" said Harris, whose mother was from India. The Vice President heads the National Space Council… Space cooperation was one of the major topics of discussion during Prime Minister Narendra Mod’'s State visit to the US this summer. India signed the Artemis accord, and also the two countries decided to work together on an international space station.”


An op-ed article in CNN focussed on how India’s moon landing shines an uncomfortable light on Russia’s failures. “The milestone marks a huge accomplishment for its nascent space program, which has made steady progress over the years. I expect future success to follow: Delhi has shown it is committed to making significant investments in space exploration efforts… Russian President Vladimir Putin is the latest in a long line of leaders to attempt to use a successful space venture to reflect his nation’s greatness. Putin had hoped this week to bask in the glow of a successful landing of the Russian Luna-25 moon lander… Russia won the race but lost the game: A malfunction caused Luna-25 to crash instead of soft-land on the lunar surface. Had it been successful, Luna-25 doubtless would have been touted as “proof” that Russia was still a great nation, despite its setbacks in its disastrous war in Ukraine… Russia’s bedraggled space program mirrors the state of the nation itself, including the surprisingly poor performance of the Russian military in its war on Ukraine. Instead of making his nation a “great power” again, Putin has shown the world just how badly Russia is in decline. The lamentable state of Moscow’s space program is just the latest confirmation of that.”


Finally, an article in CNBC commented on India’s mission to study the sun, just days after successful moon landing. “Days after India’s successful moon mission, the country is now setting its sights on the sun. According to the Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO), the Aditya-L1 spacecraft will be launched from the Sriharikota Spaceport on Sept. 2 in a bid to study the sun and its effect on space weather. Aditya, which refers to the sun in Hindi, is to be placed in a halo orbit around the Lagrangian point 1 of the Sun-Earth system, where the sun can be observed without any obstructions, an ISRO report stated… The launch will mark India’s first space-based observatory to study the sun, and would offer a “major advantage of continuously viewing the sun without any occultation or eclipses,” the ISRO report stated.”


The Global Rise of Artificial Intelligence (AI)

Artificial intelligence is fast encroaching upon every area of our lives, and it seems like there’s no stopping it. This technology is proving particularly game-changing in the world of business, where it’s enabling data-driven decision-making, automation, and improved customer experiences. In August 2023, media coverage sought to explore the latest inventions in AI by leading tech giants like Meta, YouTube and Anthropic, a rival of OpenAI.


An article in Financial Times explored how Meta is set to introduce AI-powered chatbots with distinct personalities. “Meta Platforms, the social media giant based in Menlo Park, California, is gearing up to introduce a fascinating lineup of AI-powered chatbots, each with its distinct personality… the company has been actively working on prototypes of chatbots that can engage in human-like conversations with users. This move is seen as an effort to enhance user engagement across its social media platforms… Among the most intriguing aspects of this project is the diverse range of personalities the chatbots will adopt. For instance, they are exploring a chatbot designed to speak like the iconic Abraham Lincoln, offering historical insights and wisdom in the President's distinctive style. Additionally, there's another chatbot that adopts the persona of a laid-back surfer, providing advice on travel options with a cool and relaxed demeanour.”


Another article in Tech Times covered how YouTube aims to take the viewing experience to the next level by experimenting with the use of AI in composing video summaries automatically. “These AI-generated summaries will provide viewers with a quick description of a film's contents… The feature will make it simpler for viewers to evaluate whether a video matches their interests before viewing the full version… Moreover, when watched on mobile devices, YouTube's AI-generated summaries will be accessible for English-language vlogs, shopping, and how-to videos… Although AI-generated summaries have been introduced, YouTube notes that these summaries will not take the place of the video descriptions given by content producers. Instead, they will act as supplemental summaries to speed up viewers' ability to decide if a video is relevant to their interests.”


Finally, an article in CNBC focussed on how Anthropic, the US$4.1 billion rival of OpenAI, debuted its new AI chatbox called Claude 2. “There’s a new entrant in the budding AI arms race. As Microsoft-backed OpenAI and Google race to develop the most advanced chatbots, powered by generative artificial intelligence, Anthropic is investing heavily to keep up. Just a few months after raising $750 million over two financing rounds, the startup is debuting a new AI chatbot: Claude 2… The company says Claude 2 has the ability to summarize up to about 75,000 words, which could be the length of a book. Users can input large data sets, and ask for summaries in the form of a memo, letter or story. ChatGPT, by contrast, can handle about 3,000 words… Anthropic has invested at least two months in developing Claude 2, with a team of 30 to 35 people working directly on the AI model and a total of 150 people supporting it. She said the market is growing so rapidly that there’s plenty of room for multiple players to succeed.”

Key insights and forecasts that show us what is to come

How AI-Powered Software Development May Affect Labor Markets.

Generative AI tools are increasingly being integrated into professional workflows and business applications. This raises questions of how such tools will affect the productivity of workers and labor demand.

Unleashing Possibilities, Ignoring Risks: Why We Need Tools To Manage AI’s Impact On Jobs.

The recent advancements in Large Language Model-based systems (LLMs) such as ChatGPT have generated immense excitement for the possibilities they offer. However, these developments have also triggered renewed concerns about job displacement and the potential decline of human labor demand in a wide variety of occupations.

Africa’s Sovereign Finance Toolbox: Building Resilience For A Sustainable Future.

Africa has been greatly impacted by the economic fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic. The war in Ukraine, surging global inflation, and rising interest rates have put further pressure on African government.

Africa’s Blue Economy Can Continue To Deliver Huge Benefits To The Continent.

The Blue Economy (BE) consists of economic activities taking place below, on, or adjacent to the ocean, or aquatic systems more generally. These activities include subsistence and commercial fishing, as well as emerging sectors such as renewable energy and blue carbon.

The Future of Dollar Hegemony.

The United States has benefited from the dollar’s dominance of global markets for decades. Washington should be wary of squandering those benefits through political infighting and reckless policymaking.

The State of Democracy in Southeast Asia Is Bad and Getting Worse.

Southeast Asia’s continued democratic backsliding may hurt its economic development, even at a time when it could otherwise profit from China’s severe domestic problems.

BRICS Is Getting 6 New Members.

Six countries are set to join Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa in the BRICS economic bloc from next year, the bloc announced Thursday, a move that will likely throw more scrutiny on Beijing’s political influence on the world stage.

Changing Thailand: New Ideology, Old Politics – The Diplomat.

The overwhelming votes for the MFP in the election highlight a clear ideological divide and the mainstreaming of a hitherto radical stance among the Thais.

Kazakhstan Seeks New Energy Export Routes.

Kazakhstan recently expressed concerns about the security of the Russian Port of Novorossiysk, which Astana uses to export most of its oil.

Prigozhin May Be Dead, But Putin’s Position Remains Uncertain.

The assassination of Wagner’s leader removes a domestic threat. But it does not repair the damage done to Putin’s international position by the June mutiny.

Squeezing China will Squeeze America.

U.S. President Joe Biden issued an executive order the other day on establishing mechanisms for outbound investment screening. He imposed restrictions on investments by Americans in Chinese semiconductors and microelectronics, quantum information technology and artificial intelligence sectors.

The Danger in Not Seeing the Forest for the Trees.

The approval of China has declined amongst select members of countries that could best be described as belonging to the “Global South,” and the extent to which this is indicative of global attitudes on China remains to be established.

Big Picture TEST Metrics for the US, India and China, February 2022

India’s Manufacturing PMI was down to 55.5 in December 2021 from a tenth-month high of 57.6 in October, remaining in the growth territory, amid slower rise in sales and new orders, even as business sentiment was dampened by concerns surrounding supply-chain disruptions, COVID-19 and inflationary pressures. Exports and imports grew by 39% and 40% respectively as compared to the same period last year driven by rising international demand for Indian goods. No further rate cut was announced by the RBI during this month.


China’s Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 in December 2021 from 50.1 in November, slightly above market expectations of 50. The latest reading pointed to a modest growth rate in the manufacturing sector, which is expected to remain subdued at the start of the new year due to uncertainties brought by the pandemic outbreak in Xian and Omicron variant. Exports and imports grew by 21% and 20% respectively as compared to the same period last year.