Ideas

Peace

In the previous quarter (July-September 2022), India's pace of GDP growth had slowed to 6.3% from 13.5% in Q1. The sharp fall in year-on-year growth rate is partly due to a fading of pandemic-induced base effect which had contributed towards higher growth figures in fiscal 2021-22.

Australia will provide zero-duty access to India for 100% of its tariff lines, which is expected to lead to US$10 billion jump in India's merchandise exports by 2026-27 and would help in creating additional 10 lakh jobs in India and more job opportunities in Australia.

The Indo-Pacific region is an area of increasing focus for the UK government as it aims to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) and reinforce accession with bilateral trade deals with key members: India and Mexico. Imports from India also grew – an all-time high for a second consecutive year.

For the EU, a free trade agreement with India would fit its strategy of increasing engagement with the Indo-Pacific region, where the bloc is targeting bilateral deals to take advantage of expected higher economic growth. The deal could also act as a counterbalance to China’s growing influence in the region.

This would help in the formulation of a coordinated and comprehensive policy approach to crypto assets, at a time when many countries, including India, do not have a regulatory framework for crypto assets.

Large companies in India may be required to provide assurance on their ESG reporting and supply chain-level ESG disclosures, while ESG investing funds will face tighter portfolio and stewardship criteria, according to a new set of proposals released by securities and markets regulator, the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI), aimed at improving transparency and addressing greenwashing risks.

Media coverage in the world this month covered the 2023 Turkey-Syria Earthquake and the first anniversary of the Russia-Ukraine War.

2023 Turkey–Syria Earthquake

On 6 February 2023, a Mw 7.8 earthquake struck southern and central Turkey and northern and western Syria, the largest in Turkey since the 1939 Erzincan earthquake of the same magnitude, and jointly the second-strongest recorded in the country, after the 1668 North Anatolia earthquake. It is also one of the strongest earthquakes ever recorded in the Levant and was felt as far as Egypt, Israel, Palestine, Lebanon, Cyprus, and the Black Sea coast of Turkey. There were more than 10,000 aftershocks in the three weeks that followed, and the seismic sequence was the result of shallow strike-slip faulting. There has been widespread damage in an area of c.350,000 km2 (140,000 sq mi) and an estimated 14 million people, or 16% of Turkey's population, have been affected. Development experts from the United Nations estimated that about 1.5 million people have been left homeless. Media coverage sought to explore whether such a large-scale tragedy could have been avoided and lessons to navigate Turkey’s tragedy.

An op-ed article in BBC discussed whether such a large-scale tragedy could have been avoided and whether President Erdogan's government could have done more to save lives. “Recep Tayyip Erdogan has admitted shortcomings in the response, but he appeared to blame fate on a visit to one disaster zone: "Such things have always happened. It's part of destiny's plan… Turkey has more experience of earthquakes than almost any other country, but the founder of the main volunteer rescue group believes this time, politics got in the way. After the last major earthquake in August 1999, it was the armed forces who led the operation, but the Erdogan government has sought to curb their power in Turkish society… The potential rescue effort was now far bigger than in 1999, Mr Mahruki said, but with the military left out of the planning it had to wait for an order from the government: "This created a delay in the start of rescue and search operations." President Erdogan has accepted that search efforts were not as fast as the government wanted, despite Turkey having the "largest search and rescue team in the world right now"… With elections on the horizon, his (Erdogan) future is on the line after 20 years in power and his pleas for national unity have gone unheeded.”

An op-ed article in The Print explored how Indian assistance to Turkey and Syria following earthquakes is part of the country’s tradition of providing humanitarian assistance without expecting returns or following a quid-pro-quo policy. “Within hours, India responded with disaster relief material which Turkey acknowledged saying, “India was among the first countries to respond when we asked for medical assistance” … Even as inflation and economic woes are tormenting the population, the political class in Turkey was busy in electoral calculations, permutations, and combinations… Whatever the electoral outcome, if the elections are held, New Delhi will have to reach out to a wider population of Turkey on their own and establish a vibrant and healthy people-to-people contact. Soft power approach is the ability to reach out to people and countries abroad without using coercion. Humanitarian assistance is yet another tool of soft power.”

Finally, an op-ed article in The Washington Post commented on how lessons learned from previous earthquakes can now be applied in the region and how this disaster can serve as a warning to be ready for earthquakes to come. “The experience has taught us that some fault systems produce cascades of earthquakes over periods of days to decades. Continuing to prepare for further large quakes in Turkey and Syria is just as important as rescuing and rebuilding from this one… it will likely take years to appreciate the extent of this disaster. Early reports of damage and fatalities generally focus on cities… A true understanding of the physical and social effects of a large earthquake will emerge only over decades… aid should focus on the priorities of local people and long-term resilience. Rebuilding homes to poor engineering standards will solve the immediate need for shelter, but will place people at risk of continued seismic activity… while earthquakes bring untold suffering, they can also usher in positive change… Opportunities to improve infrastructure and resolve political disagreements must be seized in Turkey and Syria, given the pre-existing humanitarian crisis along the border… The United States, like every seismically active nation, would be wise to use periods of quiescence to mitigate the effects of unpredictable but inevitable earthquakes.”

One Year of Russia-Ukraine War

Russia's war against Ukraine completed a full year on 24 February 2023, with the US President Joe Biden making a surprise visit to Kyiv to mark it. While the situation in Ukraine remains grave, the spillovers of Russia's aggression have seemingly ebbed. Media coverage sought to explore the global public opinion and when the war could potentially end.

An op-ed article in CNN presented views of seven people close to the conflict – from fixers in Ukraine, to commentators in Moscow. “We are trying to live in the here and now. But the truth is, we are heartbroken. While physically we are in Prague, our hearts have remained in Ukraine… On the third day we, my husband and I, left Russia. I felt that it was some kind of moral obligation. I could no longer stay on the territory of the state that has become a fascist one. I know that Russian people are infected with imperialism. We failed to spot just how deadly the very idea of Russia as a “great empire” was – now we have to come a long way, healing our nation from that disease. What’s changed since Russian missiles first began falling on February 24, 2022? The fear felt by Ukrainians has been replaced with anger as they stand up to barrages of rockets and drones. One thing Putin’s invasion has done is galvanize the Ukrainian people like never before. It’s an unmistakable, irrepressible resilience that convinces me the arc of history will go anything but Putin’s way… Ukrainians have learned that they are stronger than was expected of them… Among Putin’s supporters there is also a group of aggressive conformists who have become supporters of total war… The life I knew started falling apart soon after, starting with the small things. It no longer mattered what cup I used to drink my morning tea, or how I dressed, or whether or not I took a shower. Life itself no longer mattered, only the battle did… I was no longer concerned with my personal ambitions. Only the common goal was crucial – to raise our flag and show that we are fighting even under these circumstances. Life values have changed. Like never before, I enjoy every opportunity to see or talk to relatives and friends. And like other Ukrainians, I believe in our victory and that all of us will return to our beloved country. But we need the world’s help.”

An op-ed article in European Council on Foreign Relations analysed how Western decision-makers should take into account that the consolidation of the West is taking place in an increasingly divided post-Western world, and that emerging powers such as India will act on their own terms and resist being caught in a battle between America and China. “The key findings of a new multi-country global poll indicate that, a year since Russia’s war on Ukraine began, the US and its European allies have regained their unity and sense of purpose. But the study also reveals a wide gap between the West and the ‘rest’ when it comes to their desired outcomes for the war and differing understandings of why the US and Europe support Ukraine. The poll took place in December 2022 and January 2023 in nine EU countries and Great Britain, and in China, India, Turkiye, Russia, and the US. Its results suggest that Russia’s aggression in Ukraine marks both the consolidation of the West and the emergence of the long-heralded post-Western international order… Yet while Russia’s aggression is an event of global significance, people in different parts of the world have experienced and interpreted it in diverse ways. According to a former national security adviser to the prime minister of India, “for many parts of the globe, a year of war in Ukraine has done less to redefine the world order than to set it further adrift, raising new questions about how urgent transnational challenges can be met.” In contrast to opinion in the West, people in many non-Western countries appear to believe that the post-cold war era is finished. They do not expect the next international order to be characterised by polarisation between two blocs led by the United States and China; instead, they see as more likely a fragmentation into a multipolar world.”

Finally, an article in The Harvard Gazette explained how the invasion has hurt Russia strategically and militarily, and how 2023 could prove decisive and dangerous. “When up to 190,000 Russian soldiers invaded Ukraine last February, even its most ardent foreign supporters expected the nation’s far more limited defenses would collapse within days. But one year later, Russia has lost a reported 200,000 men, including many high-ranking military officials, and President Vladimir Putin has been embarrassed by the Ukrainian Army’s successes and the resilience of Ukraine’s many citizen militias… Both countries have suffered major economic declines since the war. Forty percent of Ukraine’s physical infrastructure has been destroyed while gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 33 percent. Russia’s Finance Ministry reports annual revenue fell 35 percent in 2022 while spending rose 59 percent… In the coming weeks, Hertling expects that Russia will likely increase missile attacks and its air and naval forces will continue to strike against Ukraine’s infrastructure. Military exercises in Belarus are a ruse and not evidence that nation’s forces will take up arms against Ukraine, but Russian forces may use Belarus as an entry point… Putin’s agenda, to wipe out Ukraine as a state and Ukrainians as a people, is longstanding and deeply held in Russian society and by the nation’s power brokers. It will “most certainly outlast” the Putin regime and won’t be curtailed by current battlefield setbacks.”

With broadening secular stagnation, the long-run economic growth in the major advanced economies will approach zero and perhaps that’s why they are now so eager to use geopolitics and military muscle.

Despite what many may believe, Putin is among their number, and his existential fears on this point are driving his policies across the board. As this is the case, his words about disintegration must be taken far more seriously than is currently the case.

China’s vague plan is aimed not at ending the war, but at impressing the developing world and rebutting accusations that Beijing has become a silent accomplice to Moscow.

India’s current security strategies vis-à-vis China are inadequate, but with a deterrence-by-detection strategy, the nation has a chance at maintaining its de facto border.

The rise of American-made chatbots has kicked off a flurry of Chinese activity and the furore around ChatGPT and similar alternatives has prompted a scramble in China’s tech sector to join the party.

As chatbots are integrated into search results and begin to provide users with answers to politically sensitive questions, they could become subject to manipulation by state actors.

There is no need for the Fed to change its policy. Instead, it should continue to follow its data-dependent approach and, absent a very favourable turn in the data, raise rates by another 50 basis points at its next meeting.

By helping the victims of the earthquake, the world can also help address the long-term challenges of the Syrian civil war.

The climate and energy policies of the United States and African countries should build on three shared interests—and address three strategic tensions.

As a collection, these studies describe how climate change is hindering local development efforts while also providing new opportunities. They draw attention to the vital importance of elevating developing country perspectives in driving global climate action. They also offer central insights on the diverse and evolving issues that need to be front-of-mind when considering the relevant challenges.