Following a year of turmoil in which waves of virus outbreaks and lockdowns have ebbed and flowed across regions, the countries of the world today find themselves in vastly different positions with respect to the pandemic. Some countries, like China, appear to have all but eradicated the virus. Others, like the US and the UK have passed significant milestones in terms of vaccination and are at the cusp of returning to normal levels of economic and social activity, with Europe now about a calendar quarter behind. Still others, like Chile, having ostensibly successfully vaccinated their population and opened up, are now fighting renewed waves of infections. And India, having weathered 2020 much better than many advanced economies, has become the epicentre of the pandemic due to a resurgence based on variants of virus, now recording over 350,000 daily new infections and rising death tolls that are threatening to push its healthcare system to the brink of collapse.
Despite the progress registered by many countries over the past months, it is abundantly clear that the global coronavirus pandemic, at 150 million infected and over 3 million deaths to date, is far from over. As of this report, 51 countries are still seeing rising daily infection rates and the daily new confirmed cases of COVID-19 have recently exceeded 800,000, their highest rate yet. Despite an estimated 1.5 billion vaccinations, given this backdrop, it is clear that the wished-for return to normality during 2021 will be a regional one at best and potentially only a temporary one too, given the risk of vaccine resistant virus mutations arising in the remaining outbreak hotspots.
On what is now the first anniversary of the Sign of the Times’ paper on waging the war against the pandemic1, a moment of respite for some and one of crisis for others, it is worth stepping back to assess what we have learnt about the virus, about fighting it and about each other in a time of unprecedented disruptions, in order to better equip the world for the second year of the pandemic before hopefully a new modus operandi emerges for the world.
18 Lessons from the Pandemic
1. The coronavirus pandemic now ranks among the world’s deadliest in history, with modern medicine and technology saving lives of the infected
Despite its relatively (benign) epidemiological characteristics, the Coronavirus pandemic is among the five deadliest recorded in history, although its death toll has been several orders of magnitude lower than the leaders as a result of medicines and medical technologies that were not available in previous crises
2. COVID-19 is not just a respiratory virus like the flu, it attacks other organs
COVID-19 is not influenza. It has significantly more severe symptoms and requires more intense and longer treatment to manage, with fewer positive treatment outcomes 
Sources: ‘Extrapulmonary manifestations of COVID-19’ Aakriti Gupta et al, Nature,,, July 2020; ONS Infection Survey, 26/4/20 to 6/3/21
3. Lockdowns Have Worked in Terms of Saving Lives
On a like-for-like basis, countries that enacted lockdown measures in response to the virus fared significantly better than those that did not
4. Speed is of the Essence in Enacting Containment Measures
Closing down late, even a little late, leads to significant additional deaths that could otherwise be avoided
5. Lockdowns are Part of a Larger Set of Prevention Measures
Lockdowns have proven to be an essential part of a broad set of prevention measures required to be implemented by governments to stop the virus
6. The Risks and Impact of COVID-19 Impact Vulnerable the Most
The risks of COVID-19 are unevenly distributed, with not just the elderly and people with pre-existing conditions impacted, but also socio-economically vulnerable groups, who face both health and economic risks from the virus
7. Long COVID Represents a Significant Long Term Public Health Risk
A sizeable portion of the population continues to suffer from long duration COVID, threatening their longer-term quality of life, and creating long term debilitated and incapacitated populations
“Seven in 10 patients admitted to hospital with Covid-19 had not fully recovered five months after being discharged.”
National Institute for Health Research
8. Medicines and Medical Capacity Can be Developed at Unprecedented Speeds
Vaccines can be developed and approved at greater speed than ever achieved or permitted before and they can be effective at protecting the population at a point in time. Governments around the world also added mega-facilities to treat tens of thousands of patients within weeks in countries across the world
Sources: WHO, CDC, College of Physicians of Philadelphia, National Institutes of Health Nov 2020
9. Mutations Highlight the Need for Global Vaccination
Any significant population can experience an infection spike that allows the virus to mutate, potentially overcoming existing vaccines and resetting progress against the pandemic. It is uncertain whether this is only true for unvaccinated or uninfected populations only
10. New Virus Strains Create the Risk of a “Forever War”
Given the mutation capability of the virus and its ability to potentially infect (and kill) vaccinated and previously infected populations there is potentially a forever war in play with this virus.
11. Trade and Partnerships Have been Key to Success, But International Agreements and Global Commitments Have Also Been Compromised
Without global cooperation and trade, critical supplies included PPE, oxygen, ventilators, steroids, vaccines could not be supplied to populations in any country. However, national interests led to tensions and restrictions leading to probelmes in adhering to contracts, allied interest and trade rules
12. Populism and Populist Leaders are Mostly Ill-suited to Responding Effectively to the Virus, to their People’s Detriment
Populations in populist countries were far more prone to the pandemic and its containment measures being politicised and were unwilling to do what it takes to starve out the virus, leaving vulnerable to the pandemic and its consequences
13. Social Media is a Key Driver of Misinformation and Damage Prevention
Populations widely exposed to social media were far more prone to politicising the pandemic and to questioning containment measures, with many unwilling to do what it takes to starve out the virus, leaving them vulnerable to the pandemic and its consequences and more likely to infect others
14. There is a Significant West-East Divide in the Spread of the Virus and its Containment
Countries with more collectivist cultures, generally in the East, were more likely to take strict measures necessary to contain it and their populations were more likely to act for the collective good
15. Rapidly Falling Infection Rates Created False Senses of Security
The relaxed restrictions based on misguided government reactions in various countries to falling infection rates lured populations into a false sense of security often triggering new waves of infections and led to further deaths
16. The Pandemic has Led to Significant Sacrifices and Demonstrated the Potential for Radical and Sustainable Change Across the World
People across the world were mostly willing to make dramatic changes to their lifestyles in crisis, which has contributed to their desire to make changes after the pandemic
17. While Most Populations Appreciate the Efforts of Their Leaders, the Two Most Powerful Countries Have Emerged with Damaged Global Reputations
America’s handling of the virus has dealt its international reputation for competence and effectiveness a severe blow, while views of China have become increasingly negative over the expediency of its response and trustworthiness in the pandemic
18. The Pandemic has Demonstrated the Integrated Nature of the World and its Risks
While there are no real ‘winners’ in a pandemic, in terms of managing the virus, the vast majority view is clear that victory will require cooperation, not competition
Of course, these are not the only lessons learned in what has been an extraordinary year. Due to the global nature of the pandemic as well as the unprecedented attention it has received from a scientific, public health, social and economic perspective there are dozens, if not hundreds of other lessons that can been drawn from the data of the past year year, including about risk factors including age, underlying health, gender, geography, population density, scale of habitation, employment circumstances, or religious beliefs, or about the impact of social distancing, face masks, or handwashing on virus transmissibility, just to name a few.
Implications for the World
Global and local imperative. Perhaps the most important lesson from the many lessons is the obvious one, that the global nature of the pandemic requires a global response. Declarations of sympathy aside, for much of the pandemic, countries have been effectively working for their national While trading enabled much needed equipment, products and medicines to travel across boundaries, countries have also competed and hoarded resourcesinterests, and where they have been in a trading bloc, their regional interests. While trading has provided equipment, products and medicines across boundaries and without this, the casualties would have been far greater, countries have also competed directly with one another throughout the pandemic, hoarding resources and blocking otherwise sacrosanct free trade in the mistaken belief that their populations can be made safe if the virus is defeated locally, an error that has become increasingly evident in the the face of the current records in global infection rates, achieved despite over 1 billion doses of the vaccine having been administered to date.
The pandemic has changed the political system. Failing to address the pandemic has led to mass protests, governments falling and a change in the political system. Donald Trump appeared to be on track to re-election but as the US continued to see a rise in infections and deaths to become theThe pandemic has ushered in a new era of government funding big change alongside the private sector that proved its worth in delivering pharmaceuticals, technology and logistics in a crisis. most infected country in the world with one of the highest death rates, the tide turned. A trillion-dollar stimulus packages was not enough to stave off voters’ judgement at the ballot box. The pandemic has ushered in a new political, economic and social approach from the world’s superpower. In the first quarter alone of 2021, the US government passed a further US$1.9 trillion stimulus package and announced plans for US$2.3 trillion in infrastructure plans. The warning is clear for politicians across the world. It has led to peoples the world over demanding governments to shield their populations, not just medically, but financially too and in large doses. An estimated US$20 trillion of stimulus has been injected into the system and this is increasingly targeted at the poorer sections of the population. It is also targeted at sustainable development of infrastructure. This ushers in a new era of a bigger hand for government alongside the private sector that demonstrated it could deliver pharmaceuticals, technology and logistics in a crisis.
Declaring victory too soon has proven deadly. During the past quarter alone several mutant variants of the virus have emerged that areIt is abundantly clear that with regards to a mutating virus in a globalised world, until everybody is safe, nobody is safe more infectious and more deadly than the baseline virus that ravaged the world during the first half of 2020. And while the vaccines currently being deployed are still believed to be efficacious against these variants, it is only a matter of time before the mass outbreaks happening in some parts of the world give rise to a variant that is vaccine resistant. Moreover, as recent experience from the other strains has shown, these variants will spread across the global faster than our ability to upgrade our vaccine arsenal in response. It is therefore abundantly clear that with regards to the virus, until everybody is safe, nobody is safe.
The human and economic toll can be managed, and perhaps contained. The human and economic cost of the pandemic in the past year has been staggering. The virus has killed over 3 million people so far, destroyed 495 million jobs and with it families’ savings and economic security, wipedThe human and economic cost has been staggering with this pandemic ranking 5th in deaths in history and having placed over 100 million people into extreme poverty while destroying livelihoods, and some types of politics only made that worse out US$3.7 trillion of global labour income, pushed nearly 100 million people into extreme poverty this year and raised global indebtedness by US$20 trillion., despite governments around the world injecting near US$20 trillion in extraordinary fiscal and monetary stimulus into the global economy, equal to approximately 25% of global GDP, during this period, with more planned for 2021 even assuming a global recovery from the pandemic. The pandemic has revealed that there is a wide arsenal of measures that can allow governments to manage the pandemic – economic, social and medical – but populist regimes failed their peoples more than others even in the face of the baseline coronavirus, well before variants took hold.
If the world is to avoid risking 2021 being a stalled year or even a repeat of 2020 in the worst case, countries will need to do things differently this year. The international response to India’s current plight offers some hope that this lesson has been learned. Many countries around the world are rallying to send much needed supplies to India, including oxygen machines, ventilators, test kits and PPE, in an initially piecemeal fashion that will potentially become more coordinated over time. Importantly, some countries, such as the US, are lifting export restrictions for vaccines and sending supplies to India, despite significant portions of their own populations remaining unvaccinated2. The most important lesson of the pandemic is no doubt that no one is safe until we all are.
Notes
- See the May 2020 Sign of the Times: https://www.greaterpacificcapital.com/thought-leadership/the-coronavirus-pandemic-part-ii-waging-the-war
- India itself has exported 66m doses of the vaccine to date approximately one third of its total production. Of these about 10 million were grants from the government, 20 million were sent as part of the global COVAX facility, and 36 million were commercial exports.
